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Andrea ForexMart
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#11
26.10.2017, 05:03

Unemployment Rate in France Drop in September



The total unemployment figures of France reduce in September based on the records from the Labour Ministry issued on Tuesday. This encourages French President Emmanuel Macron to execute further efforts to improve the job market.
The number of unemployed individuals in the mainland France was lowered down by 64,800 last month, this is the largest decrease since 1996.
The 1.8 percent drop after a month and 0.5 percent within a year resulted in a total of 3,475,600 jobless people which is the lowest level from the month of April.
The improvement was achieved due to reform efforts by Macron’s leadership that created more jobs and increased growth.


President Macron is considering the reduction of unemployment in the country down to 10 percent for years, overhauling the rules of labor industry last month. This could be followed by some changes in unemployment benefits and professional training subsequently.
The business confidence of France also perked up since Macron’s victory in May elections. The French politician pro-business reform agenda tend to shift company’s activities upwards in order to manage robust demand, according to a survey published on Tuesday morning.
Moreover, the emergence of new businesses led companies to hire additional workers in October which could regulate rising backlogs, hence, this is the fastest pace recorded in a decade based on the monthly purchasing managers survey.


On the other hand, industrial firms reported that their efficiency is moving towards the highest levels prior the outset of 2008-2009 global financial crisis indicated in a quarterly survey by the INSEE statistics agency on Tuesday. The expanding number of companies seems struggling to keep up with the demand. There are 32 percent of managers who admitted facing some congestion in the production system. This could be a positive indicator for the job markets considering that companies are forced to take more laborers in order to cope the demands of the client, therefore, reducing the unemployment rate.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#12
30.10.2017, 07:47

US Economy Supported by Trade and Inventories



The American economy unanticipatedly sustained the rapid momentum in Q3, as the inventory investment increased and the smaller trade deficit eased off the impact from hurricanes towards the fall in consumer expenditure and curbed in construction.


The country’s GDP gained 3.0 percent at an annualized rate during the months of July until September, which further strengthened the robust business equipment spending as mentioned by the Commerce Department on Friday. While goods inventories for sale added nearly three-quarters of percentage point growth during the previous quarter and the improved GDP underlines the economic health. This excludes the inventory investment, the economy was able to advance by 2.3 percent rate against the slow down by 2.9 percent during the second quarter. The estimates for domestic demand also declined to 2.2 percent versus 3.3 percent obtained in Q2.


The United States acquired 3.1 percent growth during the second quarter, and this was the first time that the U.S growth reached higher than 3 percent for two consecutive quarters. Forecasts from economists show that GDP will increase by 2.5 percent in the third quarter. According to the US administration, it seems difficult to determine the effect of hurricanes Harvey and Irma towards the GDP in the third quarter. Initial evaluation indicates that the subsequent storms generated losses amounted to $US10.4 billion of government-owned fixed assets and  $US121.0 billion ($A157.8 billion) worth of privately owned fixed assets.


Inventories cumulated from firms came in at $US35.8 billion in the Q3, which boosted inventory investment by 0.73 percentage point to GDP growth in the said quarter. The inventories contributed an output of more than tenth of percentage point in the previous period. While economists are expecting for a decent expansion from inventories in the last quarter. Despite the drop in the fourth quarter and surpassed the sharpest decline in imports for three years which led to a smaller trade deficit and provided four-tenths of percentage point to economic development. Trade supported the output for three quarters in a row.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#13
07.11.2017, 10:28

German Investor Confidence Rose According to Sentix



The German investors sentiment had increased, reaching its highest level for this month. The country is the largest economy in the eurozone that managed a global economic expansion based on the statement of Sentix issued on Monday. The survey was released since the EU obtained a fast-pace economic recovery subsequent to a prolonged period of slow economic growth, the development period was supported by the dynamic money-printing programme of the ECB. Moreover, this raises concerns regarding bond bubbles and property within the cluster of rich countries.


The economic sentiment index of Germany by the research group Sentix showed an upsurge of 42.4 versus 37.7 in October based on 1,000 investors who responded to the survey. Broader euro indices and the world economy arrive at 10-year highs.  European Sentix index gained 34 points in November compared with the 29.7 in October, overcoming analysts expectations and reaching its all-time high since July 2007 EUSTCS=ECI. Forecasts for other improvements of the European economy climb to 22.8 against 18.3 earlier.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#14
09.11.2017, 09:41

Trump’s Approval Rating Declined: CNN poll



The American citizens have high approval rating to the US economy prior the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, but the public’s confidence towards President Donald Trump has declined based on a new report. According to the result from CNN survey on Wednesday, there are 40 percent respondents who believe that Trump was able to fulfill his job and other election promises, indicating an 8 percent fall from April.


In addition to it, the 40 percent stated that Trump has the capacity to improve what the country needs as to the total of 49 percent after the voting. The declivity was brought by Republican and independents in general. Since November 2016, the Republicans who say that Trump is able to perform the much-needed change of the US was reduced by 10 percent. On the other hand, there is a 9 percent decrease for independents.


Nevertheless, there are 68% of respondents who consider the US economy healthy, the total was 11 percent higher before the inauguration of D.Trump. Contrarily, 59 percent expects for a better economic health in 2018. While 30 percent thinks Trump could further unify the country and not disunite it and 43 percent projected that he will strengthen the bond of the country in November 2016.


The United States presidential approval rating gained 36 percent since the beginning of the week, this is the lowest score since he was designated in office. The CNN polling conceived during November 2 to 5 with 1, 021 adults as a random sample. The margin of error (plus or minus) is 3.6 percentage points.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#15
16.11.2017, 07:57

Economic Calendar


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ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar is a real-time, customizable, and multifunctional, forex tool that allows traders to be updated with the latest and most relevant market events. All information that could be potentially impact your trading will be listed and analyzed here.


A trader that knows more, profits more. Use ForexMart's Forex Economic Calendar and become a better trader today.


   
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Andrea ForexMart
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#16
21.11.2017, 08:08

VAT Returns of Small Firms Incorporates to UK GDP Calculation



The Office for National Statistics evaluates the British economy by overhauling its way which includes huge VAT amounts from smaller companies for the first time. In the previous survey, the gross domestic product of the country was mainly based on the turnover of 45,000 largest firms. Since December, the data from the third of Britain’s 1.8m VAT returns will also be included in the turnover for the calculation of official GDP results.
With this, assessing UK economic growth will have dramatic changes for this could provide further insights from particular areas and industries. A higher proportion of VAT returns involves small businesses with a total of 98pc of UK companies.


In the past estimates of GDP, pubs and restaurants sectors, particularly  "food and beverage service activities" have high levels according to the 172 monthly poll and 28,000 tax returns.
According to the ONS, a much more detailed data will provide a comprehensive output of pubs, restaurants and takeaways and restaurants among various regions. The first new estimate encompasses VAT returns coming from small and medium businesses including 100 or fewer headcounts. While survey for large companies will remain to be part of the data gathering and ONS’s report. As there is only 20 percent of smaller firms in the UK economy, which means that the data accumulated by the national statistical institute will be more accurate but the overall GDP result could possibly be not altered despite its inclusion because major firms have a greater impact.


Based on the perspective of PwC’s Economist John Hawksworth, it would be better if the Statistics authority will release GDP forecast “ with and without (the) use of the new VAT data" respectively, in order for the public to understand the difference. On the other hand, ONS  chief economist Nick Vaughan announced that including additional information will be a gradual process.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#17
23.11.2017, 07:11

Flat Economic Yield Curve Impact to the Economy



The U.S. Treasury yield curve is intensifying concern as it has been moving flat at a quicker rate which could affect the outlook for the economy. Although, this is already expected since the slope of the curve has been a relevant tool because of its stability and positive track record. Oppositely, a narrow curve would mean a slowdown in growth.


The economic signal has been more robust when there is an outright curve inversion, which happens when short-term yields are greater than those on longer-dated Treasuries. It is not the current situation but generally, people aim for 63 basis points. The difference between two- and 10-year Treasury yields have been reduced from 128 basis points in January which is the least gap since 2007 just before the recession began.


There are investors who believe that the Treasury yield curve is enough to guarantee a change in the economic outlook but it is still far ahead. It is necessary to stabilize the changes in the yield curve of the financial market compared to the general economic yield curve.


The spread between the federal funds rate and the nominal gross domestic product is the yield curve of the economy. This association is significant as it determined the ability of businesses and their consumers to afford higher borrowing costs which would ultimately affect the growth of the economy.


Based on third-quarter data,  the economy’s yield curve is near 300 basis points, which is can be achieved by taking the 4.1 percent annualized rate of growth in nominal GDP and deduct to the quarterly average of the federal funds rate of 1.15 percent. The spread widened by 65 basis points compared last year. However, despite the increase of 25 basis points by the Federal Reserve, the gap would increase the estimated by 4.5 percent to 5 percent growth in the nominal GDP which is already anticipated.


Nevertheless, changes in the yield curve of the economy will be supported by the higher spread between the federal funds rate and nominal GDP growth amid a not-so-strong and restricted growth of the financial market. This would prop up profits and equities of businesses. The future perspective of the fixed-income market may not be that positive since higher growth would induce Fed to normalize monetary policy through rate hikes.
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#18
28.11.2017, 06:53

Japanese Government Additional Budget for FY2017



The Japanese government allocated an extra budget of 2.7 to 2.9 trillion yen equivalent to $24-26 billion for the current fiscal year until March 2018. There is an extra budget estimated worth of 1 trillion yen to boost expenditures, according to the official sources from the government


Moreover, the government will remove excess cash compared to last year’s fiscal budget and unutilized money from debt processes since the lending costs were lower-than-expected, according to reports.


There is no plan to make up with a deficit in bond issuance as long as there is ambiguity since there is still uncertainty in the future plans.


After a major election in October, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet members aims to boost childcare support, enhance productivity involving small and medium-sized companies which would toughen competition among agricultural, fishery and forestry industries.
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#19
13.12.2017, 09:00

France GDP Expected to Grow, says BoF



The economy of France is projected to increase at a steady pace in October to December based on the poll led by the Bank of France. The gross domestic product of the country is predicted to rise by 0.5 percent in Q4, which remains steady from the second estimate published in November. The French economy grew by 0.5 percent in the third quarter.


The data from the survey today indicates that the industrial production resumed growing until November. The business leaders mentioned that output is planned to increase at a consistent pace this month. Moreover, the manufacturing confidence index also sustained its score at 106 last month, versus the forecasted increase of 107. On the other hand, the service sector activity heightened in the previous month. Business executives expect for a slight increase in activity for this month. The services confidence index further showed a steady stance at 102 in November, as the construction activity had a sharp rise in the same month. The sentiment index in construction gained slightly from 103 to 104, which was the highest recorded since December 2007. According to forecast, the activity may grow at a hardly slower momentum in December.
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#20
20.12.2017, 11:38

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Stay tuned and watch the news. ForexMart always tries to make your trade even easier and more profitable!
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