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Andrea ForexMart
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#11
09.03.2018, 09:28

The Release of Government's EU Exit Analysis



The EU free trade agreements still expected to cost the UK by 4.8 percent of its projected economic growth for the next 15 years, based on the confidential government ‘EU exit analysis’ released yesterday. The decline in growth amounted to £55 billion of the British government debt by 2033, which could further negate the expected ‘Brexit dividend’ by the supporters of the EU exit. The report was issued by the department of Exiting the EU committee. Moreover, Brexit Secretary David Davis stated that the published document should be kept confidential but some parts of the material were already leaked to the media last month.


The alternative option led by Theresa May’s team is the “Membership of the single market” but was ruled out due to the possible drop in GDP by 1.6 percent. On one hand, the ‘no deal’ Brexit would return the UK trading with the EU-27 under the standards of the World Trade Organisation and would cost 7.7 percent of the GDP based on the government numbers. This could result in a surge of government borrowing by £20 billion and £80 billion, respectively. With this, there are assumptions that approximately 40,000 to 90,000 EU migrants are planning to leave the United Kingdom.


Included in the analysis is the projected economic benefits from the reducing regulations. The government of Britain would likely create its original version of impact assessment, however, some of the think tanks are expected to see potential gains around zero and 2 percent only of the GDP. Nevertheless, the report does not mainly evaluate the short-term economic effect of Brexit.


It further shows that the free trade deal with the United States would benefit the UK GDP by 0.2 percent in the longer term. While another concession with countries under the trans-Pacific and south-east Asia regional group such as Australia, China, India and New Zealand is expected to add 0.1 to 0.4 percent of GDP. Ministers of Britain are hoping to start the talks prior to the Brexit scheduled in March 2019, but this plan seems to be already abandoned.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#12
22.03.2018, 07:41

March Fed Rate Hike Marks an Optimistic Outlook for 2018
Full story at: https://goo.gl/b2M3WW
#economicnews #thinkbigtradeforex #forexmart
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Andrea ForexMart
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#13
16.05.2018, 07:51

French Economic Growth at 0.3% in Q2, says BOF



The French economy is projected to expand by 0.3 percent during the period of April-June, this showed unchanged growth pace in the first quarter, according to the initial estimate of the Bank of France on Monday.


The central bank’s business sentiment indicators for both services industry and manufacturing sector had declined by 102 points in the previous month versus 103 points in March. In April, the BOF revised lower its economic growth forecast in Q1 from 0.4 to 0.3 percent due to lackluster activity in the manufacturing industry.


The country’s data reflects a larger reduction in the European economy, as ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure mentioned last month that the eurozone is expected to suffer from major correction instead of a downturn as growth rates hold out its multi-year highs.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#14
22.05.2018, 07:47

German’s Strong Economic Upswing Despite Weak Growth in Q1, says Finance Ministry



Germany’s economy had a strong growth amid weak data from the largest economy in Europe earlier in 2018, according to the finance ministry on Tuesday. Moreover, economic output expanded by 0.3 percent in Q1 after the 0.6 percent growth in the last quarter of 2017. The finance ministry also mentioned that the downturn was caused by temporary factors such as ill-health conditions and strikes that affect industrial output alongside the above-average number of public holidays during the quarter.


In addition to it, the ministry stated that industrial orders continued to be at an extremely high level and that export activity at German companies could take advantage of the strong development of the world economy.


Reportedly, the combination of moderate inflation, agreed raise in pensions, robust labor market and wage hikes led to the possible solid income development and continuous support in private consumption. The government of Germany believes that the economy will grow by 2.3 percent this year.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#15
06.06.2018, 08:40

Sluggish Growth of Japan Services Sector in May, New Orders Declined



Japan’s services sector activity rose at a sluggish pace in May than the previous month given the expansion of new orders at the slowest pace since September 2016, based on the private survey on Tuesday. This implies that the economy has lost its momentum in the second quarter.


However, the business confidence increased to the highest for four months in April as the companies launch new products to give way for the expected increases in the future demand.


The Markit/Nikkei Japan Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined on a seasonally adjusted basis to 51.0 in May from 52.5 in April.


Moreover, there is a rising concern on the lesser demand conditions as new sales rising but at a subdued rate in 20 months, according to an economist at IHS Markit, Joe Hayes, who gathers the survey.


To sustain the business activity, firms started to clear the “backlogs of work”. High business activities dropped for the first time in the first five months of the year.


The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, decreased to 51.7 from 53.1 in April.


Japanese manufacturing activity rose in May at the slowest rate in seven months due to cooled down new orders based on the revised survey on Friday. This implies lesser domestic demand of the country. Hence, the economy weakened in the first quarter that ends the growth for eight consecutive quarters, which was the longest steady growth since the 1980s bubble economy.


Since the end of the first quarter, the negative outcome on factory data induced uncertainty on the rate of recovery by the economy.
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Andrea ForexMart
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#16
20.06.2018, 06:57

SNB Keeps an Ultra Loose Monetary Policies



The Swiss National Bank announced the decision to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy on Thursday and analysts expectations matched from the survey by Reuters giving a unanimous answer.


They reiterated the fragility or exchange rates after the strengthening of the Swiss franc in the past few weeks and began low this year.


At the same time, Chairman Thomas Jordan said that it would be too early to raise rates in Switzerland amid low inflation.


Another issue is the political uncertainty in Italy which will affect the eurozone in the future and it is important for the central bank to be heedful in this situation, according to an analyst.
Forty experts expect the SNB to maintain the target range to be 1.25 percent to minus 0.25 percent in three months on the offered rate of London Interbank, which has been the ongoing target for the past three-and-a-half years.


Also, they expect a negative interest rate of 0.75 percent deposits to be sustained where the commercial bank held a certain value as one of the important tools used by the bank.


Changes in the LIBOR target range is anticipated to happen soonest at the end of the year based on the UBS, while the median consensus deems to set at the end of next year.


Analyst of Credit Suisse initially thought the central bank to raise their rates as early as 2019 based on the economic strength of Switzerland, with a forecast growth of 2.2 percent this year.


The Global Head of Investment Strategy & Research at Credit Suisse Group AG, Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe said, “Our base case scenario is where the ECB is considering a first interest rate increase themselves by mid-2019, and the SNB could move a quarter before.” Connoting the reaffirmation of central bank’s decision.  However, she added that these two would move together as they are ‘economically interlinked’.


Her expectation is a gradual increase of rates until it reached around 1.20 against the euro in a year.
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